Rankings:
Seeds:
Notes:
1. Bracket Matrix as of Sunday has Texas, Florida, and Utah St in, but I don't at the moment. Texas has some very good wins but has a losing record in Q1 and Q2. Their SOR is bad, but their efficiency rankings are good. Florida has an abysmal 3-11 Q1 and combined 6-12 in Q1&2 and like Texas a bad SOR, but good efficiency rankings. Utah St has a good SOR at 39, but only one good win and a combined Q1&2 of 4-5 and a not great efficiency ranking. I think Belmont stacks up favorably to each of these three with a better SOR and a 5-3 vs. Q1&2. Creighton is basically the same as Texas and Florida, but a clean sheet in Q3-4. Indiana has 6! Q1 wins, a clean sheet in Q3-4, a better SOR than Texas and Florida with similar efficiency, but a BOATLOAD of losses and would set a record for worst RPI (does it matter anymore?) for an at-large team. 2. All six of those teams are primed to lose their spot to a bid stealer. So the discussion about them may not matter much. Leagues primed for bid steal:
A. Pac-12: If anyone but Washington and Arizona St win, then bid stolen and Arizona St is not a lock as an at large, either. Seems likely.
B. A-10: VCU is an at-large lock. If anyone else wins, then bid stolen. Possible.
C. AAC: Can Memphis make a run a steal a bid? Not likely.
D. MAC: If Buffalo stumbles, then bid stolen. Possible.
E. SoCon: If UNC-G beats Wofford, then bid stolen. Possible.
F. MWC: If Nevada stumbles, then bid stolen. Quite possible.
G. Big East: Marquette and Nova are locks. St. John's, Seton Hall, Creighton are on the bubble with the former two feeling pretty safe. If Creighton, or anyone else win, then bid stolen. Quite possible.
H. Big 12: Maybe Texas could end the discussion by winning out? Not gonna happen.
I. Big 10: Same for Indiana? Yeah, not happening.
J. SEC: Another miracle run for South Carolina? No.
I'd say 3 of these scenarios are quite likely.